Inflation is going to be with us for a while
More and more economists, as well as the public at-large, are coming to see and expect what the central bankers prefer not to think about: inflation is going to be around for some time.
According to the Wall Street Journal:
Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades, according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while.
Economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal raised their forecasts of how high inflation would go and for how long, compared with their previous expectations in April.
The respondents on average now expect a widely followed measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, to be up 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year before. They forecast the annual rise to recede to slightly less than 2.3% a year in 2022 and 2023.
That would mean an average annual increase of 2.58% from 2021 through 2023, putting inflation at levels last seen in 1993.
It’s not the roaring inflation some of us experienced in the 1970s – and that’s a good thing. But as Johns Hopkins Prof. Steve Hanke writes, the inflation we are seeing today is a “harbinger of what’s to come.”